HOUSTON–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Industry Executives will discuss strategies to deliver Value, Efficiency & Flexibility in a cost challenged Deepwater market, April 3-5, 2017, during the 14th annual Deepwater symposium, MCE Deepwater Development 2017 (MCEDD) held at the NH Grand Hotel Krasnapolsky in Amsterdam.
Interactive Special Sessions focused on “Leveraging Best Practices”, “Industry Collaboration” and “Novel Contracting Approaches” compliment a strong, competitively selected 3-day technical program.
For more details please visit www.MCEDD.com or call Quest Offshore Resources, Inc. at +1 (281) 491-5900.
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Minor adjustments to Quest’s long-term subsea tree award forecast are applied as the oil price continues to fluctuate. The majority of the adjustments were made to the North Sea, the US GoM and Brazil. Cost concerns around North Sea projects continue to delay projects, marginal field development and infrastructure-led drilling are delayed in the US GoM and Petrobras continues to work through internal challenges before materially increasing their subsea tree demand near-term.
With several potential awards in the pipeline for Q4 we could potentially see a “healthy mix” of those awards being distributed globally to all regions with a larger portion going to Africa/Med, Asia Pacific, and the North Sea. The majority (greater than 50%) of the steel awards will most likely go to Africa and Asia Pacific, while the majority of thermoplastic awards will most likely go to South America with the North Sea next in line. Some of the big drivers will most likely be Tullow Oil’s Banda, Stone Energy’s MC 344, BP’s Shah Deniz Phase 2, Petrobras’ Buzios SW and Lula Norte, and Husky Oil’s Liuhua 291-1.
From Q4 2013 to Q3 2014 “The Big 3” (Aker Solutions, Oceaneering, and Technip) continue to dominate the global steel subsea production umbilical market with a combined market share of ninety five percent of the total km (steel) awards and ninety six percent of the total dollars.
Cost concerns around large greenfield developments in the North Sea have either put some projects on hold or changed their scope to no longer include subsea components. Where the subsea tree market is buoyed slightly by demand for brownfield activities (that may not require additional SPU or flowlines), the SPU outlook relies on greenfield subsea tiebacks and stand alone developments. With Statoil reducing spending and depressed oil prices, a number of these greenfield developments have been pushed to the right within Quest’s award forecast.
There are a number of market factors affecting demand potential out of Asia. Most notably is the lack of activity of Australia. Contributors include, but are not limited to risk associated with local natural gas prices as the large gas fields require stable and agreeable natural gas prices to be commercial. Also, many of these fields are considering utilizing FLNG technology but operators seem to be waiting for operational results from Shell’s Prelude once it comes on stream. China has also been lack luster with respect to expected activity from the area. Political concerns in Indonesia have already created project delays. Increased scrutiny of these issues has led to an overall 15 percent reduction of expected SPU demand from the region and some projects were pushed outside the current forecast period.
The award volumes for South America, namely Brazil, in 2013 and 2014e were the lowest since 2007. With the named projects underway, Quest expects Petrobras will need to significantly increase demand for SPU, especially for the pre-salt, in the next two years. It is understood that a large multi-year call-off is in process that will help Petrobras with the execution of their expected developments.
Aker Solutions, OneSubsea, and FTI saw 80% of the subsea tree awards YTD 2014. Aker Solutions and FTI were awarded 70% of the subsea control modules and 80% of the subsea manifold orders in the first three quarters of the year. With the high dollar value of Aker’s win of Kaombo and the higher price tag for subsea manifolds, this puts Aker Solutions and FTI in good standing to see the lion’s share of subsea order value through September 2014.
Africa’s greenfield developments have, for the most part, demand high volumes of steel-tubed SPU and the industry has been waiting for a number of high profile projects to award. These developments include Shell’s Bonga SW, Cobalt’s Cameia, Anadarko’s Prosperidade, Eni’s Eastern Hub and Sankofa. Considering only these five developments, they represent almost 400 km of product forecast to be awarded in the next 18 months.
As the U.S. GoM focuses on oil developments, for the most part, Quest forecasts a reduced volume of long-distance subsea tiebacks of gas projects to shelf production hosts. The oil developments also tend to require more subsea trees than their gas counterparts, therefore Quest expects less volume of SPU is expected for each subsea tree ordered. This does not mean the opportunities are not out there, but the type, size and complexity of the dominant development in the U.S. GoM has changed since pre-2008 and will likely stay this way until natural gas plays become more economically attractive again.