Subsea Database

Quest Subsea Database (QSDB) – The QSDB has been active since 1982 and includes historical and forecast information on global subsea project developments from 1961 to 2016, and beyond. The QSDB provides forecast analysis on growth opportunities, the companies driving both supply and demand within the market space and emerging trends with respect to new technologies. QSDB analysis includes: five-year rolling forecast for global subsea tree awards, six-year rolling forecast for global subsea tree startups, global subsea Capex forecast and subsea tree and control manufacturer market share. The QSDB is released quarterly and includes an MS PowerPoint Market Overview, current downloads of the database in MS Excel including forecast subsea awards, and all working data supporting the Market Overview.

STRATEGIC VALUE

  • Industry leading forecast of subsea tree awards
  • Market forecasts illustrate near and long term health of overall subsea industry
  • Key analysis around regional, operator and water depth trends for subsea tree awards and startups
  • Historic and forecast subsea CAPEX analysis

QSDB DELIVERABLES

  • Market Overview in MS PowerPoint of key trends and forecasts
  • Full working files in MS Excel supporting Market Overview
  • Full downloads of historic and forecast subsea databases

QSDB OUTLINE

Subsea Project Spend by Onstream (Startup) Year

  • Illustrations of global historical and forecast spending for entire subsea production package

Market Forecast Subsea Awards

  • Quest applies a base, mean and high case to all projects to take into consideration the location, timing, status, etc. of a project in calculating forecasted trees. Current market dynamics also influence the base and high case scenarios for projects.
  • Historical and five-year forecast of global subsea tree awards: By Region, By Water Depth, CAPEX analysis for tree, control and manifold hardware (Only)
  • Top operators classified by their mean case tree award forecast Market Analysis Subsea Tree Startups
  • Illustrates historic and forecast installed base of subsea tree awards
  • From 1996 and includes six-year forecast: By Region, By Water Depth

Market Share Analysis

  • Long-term regional subsea tree market share
  • Current quarter analysis of subsea tree and control awards
  • Current quarter and YTD review of subsea tree, control and manifold awards by manufacturer and estimated value (US$)

STRATEGIC VALUE
• Industry leading forecast of subsea tree
awards
• Market forecasts illustrate near and longterm
health of overall subsea industry
• Key analysis around regional, operator
and water depth trends for subsea tree
awards and startups
• Historic and forecast subsea
CAPEX analysis
QSDB Deliverables
uu Market Overview in MS PowerPoint of
key trends and forecasts
uu Full working files in MS Excel supporting
Market Overview
uu Full downloads of historic and forecast
subsea databases
QSDB Outline
Subsea Project Spend by Onstream (Startup) Year
• Illustrations of global historical and
forecast spending for entire subsea
production package
Market Forecast Subsea Awards
• Quest applies a base, mean and
high case to all projects to take into
consideration the location, timing, status,
etc. of a project in calculating forecasted
trees. Current market dynamics also
influence the base and high case
scenarios for projects.
• Historical and five-year forecast of global
subsea tree awards: By Region, By
Water Depth, CAPEX analysis for tree,
control and manifold hardware (Only)
• Top operators classified by their mean
case tree award forecast
Market Analysis Subsea Tree Startups
• Illustrates historic and forecast installed
base of subsea tree awards
• From 1996 and includes six-year
forecast: By Region, By Water Depth
Market Share Analysis
• Long-term regional subsea tree
market share
• Current quarter analysis of subsea tree
and control awards
• Current quarter and YTD review of
subsea tree, control and manifold
awards by manufacturer and estimated
value (US$)
HISTORICAL TREE-LEVEL DATA
Province Operator Project Name Status
Tree Booked
Date
Tree Delivery
Year
Subsea Contract
($000)
Number Of
Manifolds
Manifold Mfg Tree Mfg Controller Mfg
N Sea, Norway BG Group KNARR CENTRAL & WEST Pending/Construction 9/20/2011 2014 $135,000.00 2 FMC Technologies FMC Technologies FMC Technologies
N Sea, Norway BG Group KNARR CENTRAL & WEST Pending/Construction 5/5/2012 2014 $135,000.00 2 FMC Technologies FMC Technologies FMC Technologies
N Sea, Norway BG Group KNARR CENTRAL & WEST Pending/Construction 5/5/2012 2014 $135,000.00 2 FMC Technologies FMC Technologies FMC Technologies
N Sea, Norway BG Group KNARR CENTRAL & WEST Pending/Construction 9/20/2011 2013 $135,000.00 2 FMC Technologies FMC Technologies FMC Technologies
N Sea, Norway BG Group KNARR CENTRAL & WEST Pending/Construction 9/20/2011 2013 $135,000.00 2 FMC Technologies FMC Technologies FMC Technologies
N Sea, Norway BG Group KNARR CENTRAL & WEST Pending/Construction 9/20/2011 2013 $135,000.00 2 FMC Technologies FMC Technologies FMC Technologies
N Sea, Norway BG Group KNARR CENTRAL & WEST Pending/Construction 9/20/2011 2014 $135,000.00 2 FMC Technologies FMC Technologies FMC Technologies
N Sea, Norway BG Group KNARR CENTRAL & WEST Pending/Construction 9/20/2011 2014 $135,000.00 2 FMC Technologies FMC Technologies FMC Technologies
SUBSEA FORECAST-LEVEL DATA
Status
Subsea Tree
Count
Tree Bid Date Tree Award Date Tree Award Qtr Award Year Bidder 1 Bidder 2 Bidder 3
Bidding 58 9/1/2012 6/1/2013 2 2013 Aker Solutions FMC Technologies
FEED 5 6/1/2013 1/1/2014 1 2014 Cameron
FEED 18 9/1/2013 3/1/2014 1 2014 GE Oil & Gas FMC Technologies
Conceptual 10 1/1/2015 6/1/2015 2 2015
Conceptual 10 6/1/2013 3/1/2014 1 2014 FMC Technologies GE Oil & Gas
FEED 6 6/1/2014 6/1/2015 2 2015 FMC Technologies Cameron GE Oil & Gas
FEED 8 1/1/2013 6/1/2013 2 2013 FMC Technologies
FEED 8 1/1/2013 6/1/2013 2 2013 FMC Technologies
Conceptual 15 1/1/2014 12/1/2014 4 2014
FEED 36 1/1/2014 6/1/2014 2 2014
PROJECT-LEVEL DATA
Hemisphere Province Operator Project Name Block
Water
Depth Mtr
Startup
Year
Host Field Name
Offset From
Host Km
Africa/Medit. Angola Total Kaombo Phase 1 (BLOCK 32) ’32’ 1540 2018 Kaombo Phase 1 20
Africa/Medit. Israel Noble Energy LEVIATHAN EPS (DOMESTIC SUPPLY) ‘Rachel License’ 1000 2017 LEVIATHAN EPS (DOMESTIC SUPPLY) 3
Asia Pacific/Middle East Indonesia INPEX ABADI GAS FIELD FLNG (MASELA BLOCK) ‘Masela’ 500 2017 ABADI GAS FIELD FLNG (MASELA BLOCK) 5
Asia Pacific/Middle East Indonesia Chevron KUTEI BASIN: RANGGAS (RAPAK PSC) ‘Rapak PSC’ 1600 2018 MAKASSAR STRAIGHT PHS 3 11
North America GOM-Mexico Pemex LAKACH-LABAY COMPLEX
‘Deep
Coatzacoalcos’
1500 2016 50
North America GOM-US ExxonMobil JULIA WR627 ‘WR627’ 2160 2017 HADRIAN NORTH KC919 75
North America GOM-US Royal Dutch/Shell STONES FFD WR508 ‘WR508’ 2900 2015 STONES FFD WR508 5
North Sea/Arctic N Sea, UK Enquest PLC KRAKEN 9/2b ‘9-2’ 118 2016 KRAKEN 9/2b 3
North Sea/Arctic West of Shetlands Hurricane Exp LANCASTER 205/21A PHS 1 ‘205/21a’ 157 2016 LANCASTER 205/21A PHS 1 3
South America Falkland Island Premier Oil SEA LION 14/10-3 ’14/10-B’ 400 2017 SEA LION 14/10-3 3
Excel Tables Do Not Contain All Available Data Fields
World
Subsea
Produc/on
Capex
Forecast
spending
2012-­‐2017e
$67.2bn
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
$20,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e
Number
of
Subsea
Tree
Startups
KM
of
SPU
or
$MM
Startup
Year
$MM
-­‐ subsea
production
umbilicals
installed
$MM
-­‐ subsea
manifolds
$MM
-­‐ tree
control
pkg
(flying
leads,
jumper,
MCS,
HPU,
UTA,
J-­‐Plate)
$MM
-­‐ subsea
trees
&
control
pod:
(chokes,
sensor
pkg.)
No.
subsea
trees
(well
completions)
by
onstream
year
Km
-­‐ subsea
production
umbilicals
installed
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800 #
of
Subsea
Trees
(Mean
Case)
Award
Year
Africa/Medit. Asia/Pacific N.
Sea N.
America S.
America
Quest
Global
Subsea
Tree
Forecast
Awards
Mean
Case
2000A
to
2016e
Global
Subsea
Tree
Awards
by
Water
Depth
2000-­‐2016e
(Forecast
=
Mean
Case)
Deep
and
ultra
deep
water
awards
forecast
to
increase
by
129%
in
2012-­‐2016e
(mean
case)
compared
to
2007-­‐2011.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800 #
Subsea
Tree
Awards
(Mean
Case)
Award
Year
0-­‐1500fsw
1501-­‐4000fsw
4001-­‐7500fsw
7501+fsw
0-­‐1500fsw
36%
1501-­‐
4000fsw
24%
4001-­‐
7500fsw
38%
7501+fsw
2%
Global
Consolidated
Market
Share
AS
=
Aker
Solu/ons;
CAM
=
Cameron;
DQ
=
Dril-­‐Quip;
FTI
=
FMC
Technologies;
GE
=
GE
Oil
&
Gas
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
% Mkt Share
Award Yr
AS CAM DQ FTI GE
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