What We Might See Over the Next Six Months

atonkin | | Subsea


With several potential awards in the pipeline for Q4 we could potentially see a “healthy mix” of those awards being distributed globally to all regions with a larger portion going to Africa/Med, Asia Pacific, and the North Sea. The majority (greater than 50%) of the steel awards will most likely go to Africa and Asia … Continue reading

Year To Date the Big 3 Continue To Lead in Steel

atonkin | | Subsea


From Q4 2013 to Q3 2014 “The Big 3” (Aker Solutions, Oceaneering, and Technip) continue to dominate the global steel subsea production umbilical market with a combined market share of ninety five percent of the total km (steel) awards and ninety six percent of the total dollars.

North Sea Faces Near-Term Softening of Subsea Demand

atonkin | | Subsea


Cost concerns around large greenfield developments in the North Sea have either put some projects on hold or changed their scope to no longer include subsea components. Where the subsea tree market is buoyed slightly by demand for brownfield activities (that may not require additional SPU or flowlines), the SPU outlook relies on greenfield subsea … Continue reading

Asia Continues to Face Economic and Geopolitical Issues

atonkin | | Subsea


There are a number of market factors affecting demand potential out of Asia. Most notably is the lack of activity of Australia. Contributors include, but are not limited to risk associated with local natural gas prices as the large gas fields require stable and agreeable natural gas prices to be commercial. Also, many of these … Continue reading

Brazil Demand Should Pick Up

atonkin | | Subsea


The award volumes for South America, namely Brazil, in 2013 and 2014e were the lowest since 2007. With the named projects underway, Quest expects Petrobras will need to significantly increase demand for SPU, especially for the pre-salt, in the next two years. It is understood that a large multi-year call-off is in process that will … Continue reading

Increased Brownfield

atonkin | | Subsea


Aker Solutions, OneSubsea, and FTI saw 80% of the subsea tree awards YTD 2014. Aker Solutions and FTI were awarded 70% of the subsea control modules and 80% of the subsea manifold orders in the first three quarters of the year. With the high dollar value of Aker’s win of Kaombo and the higher price … Continue reading

Africa Backlog of Developments Lends Strength to Overall Forecast

atonkin | | Subsea


Africa’s greenfield developments have, for the most part, demand high volumes of steel-tubed SPU and the industry has been waiting for a number of high profile projects to award. These developments include Shell’s Bonga SW, Cobalt’s Cameia, Anadarko’s Prosperidade, Eni’s Eastern Hub and Sankofa. Considering only these five developments, they represent almost 400 km of … Continue reading

Change in U.S. Gulf of Mexico Development Profile Adjusts km/Subsea Tree

atonkin | | Subsea


As the U.S. GoM focuses on oil developments, for the most part, Quest forecasts a reduced volume of long-distance subsea tiebacks of gas projects to shelf production hosts. The oil developments also tend to require more subsea trees than their gas counterparts, therefore Quest expects less volume of SPU is expected for each subsea tree … Continue reading

Q3 2014 SPU Market Share

atonkin | | Subsea


With over eighty percent market share in both terms of dollars and in total kilometer awards; Technip and Oceannering take Q3 2014. Their total market share includes supplying one hundred percent of this quarter’s 74.6 km thermoplastic SPU awards all of which were awarded to the North Sea. Over ninety five percent of the Q3 … Continue reading

Five-year Subsea Production Umbilical (SPU) Award Forecast Reduced – Slightly

atonkin | | Subsea


Quest has reduced its five-year SPU award forecast by just under nine percent since the September deliverable. The adjustment is a result of awards pushing to the right, especially near-term, as a result of regional softening of the market expected in the next 18-24 months. This is not a result of expected loss of projects … Continue reading

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